Disasterology: March 2024
This newsletter is a compilation of recent disaster ~things~ that I think are cool, important, or otherwise of interest to people who are intrigued with disaster (broadly defined).
There’s a little something for everyone!
Good Afternoon, Fools!
Hope you have your critical-thinking hats on today. I promise there are no pranks, just horrors, below.
The State of Emergency Management
The state of emergency management is *q word* but does anyone else feel like the vibes are unstable? This month there was a massive wildfire in Texas. There were some tornadoes in Kentucky and of course, the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapsed in Baltimore which took the lives of six people.
Speaking of instability, the New York Times has an opinion series on nuclear war and it’s a disturbing reminder of how wildly unprepared the US emergency management system is to handle this…. All hazards should include civil defense, obviously!
A Train, A Bridge, and A Princess
Last year when Norfolk Southern’s train derailed in East Palestine, Ohio I wrote about how the failure to communicate clearly with the public right away doomed the rest of the response. When a crisis occurs, there is a very small window of time to capture the trust and attention of the public. This has always been difficult but is becoming infinitely more so given the lack of moderation and verification on Twitter, TikTok’s algorithm, the gutting of journalism, and the general lack of trust in key institutions and public officials. A real perfect storm, if you will.
Communication matters so much for emergency management because it affects everything else in response and recovery. I think a lot about what would have happened if, in the hours and days after the train derailment, communication with the public had unfolded differently.
With this problem constantly on my mind, the communications crisis I couldn’t look away from this month was the disappearance of Kate Middleton. I have no interest in the Royal Family (don’t be mean to Meghan and also all the colonialism) but the whole thing evoked enough Gone Girl energy that I tuned in. It sure is something to watch a PR team with limitless resources be so disconnected from reality that it took weeks to get most people to simmer down. (Although, even now my feed is filled with a contingent of people who do not believe the video is real. I’m not a video expert but I do know that if history is any indication we’re not at all done with this situation. That institution is nuts.)
I have some empathy for a situation like East Palestine, where the locals didn’t have the resources, training, or leadership to be able to communicate a complex situation. The Palace’s failures seem to stem mostly from arrogance – and a complete disconnect from how the public (and also the internet) works. “We’re the palace and you’re going to believe what we tell you” isn’t a winning PR strategy when the public doesn’t trust you. This happens in disasters too. Some officials seem blindsided when the public doesn’t simply take them at their word because they are “the authority”. Trust is earned.
Too many agencies seem to think that the way to chase false information, let alone full-blown conspiracy theories is by putting out a “fact vs. fiction” blogpost. That’s like using a squirt gun to put out a wildfire. (This strategy was featured as a best practice in a 2018 DHS report called “Countering False Information on Social Media in Disasters and Emergencies” which is a document that really highlights how behind emergency management is on this issue.)
I woke up around 3:00 am the day the Bridge collapsed in Baltimore. In my half-asleep state, I didn’t question the authenticity of the video – mostly because the account I was looking at was a well-established journalist. In other words, someone who I have followed for years and trust to have vetted what he posts. (Trusted journalism matters so much.) Later I saw that some news stations had temporarily held the footage until they could verify it wasn’t AI. I get the hesitation – and I think it was appropriate. There is an element of unbelievability to the initial video. In the dark, it’s hard to grasp just how big that ship is and even harder to imagine how such a sturdy, familiar monument could crumble so quickly.
As the timeline of events has been compiled, we’ve seen why communication, in its many forms, is so important. Good communication started when the harbor pilot didn’t hesitate to make the call to stop traffic on the bridge. It has continued as public officials move the response along, trying to minimize confusion and further complicate the rippling indirect impacts.
To be sure, misinformation began to spread immediately. By 3:00 am I was already seeing tweets about the collision being a terrorist attack (it was not). Eventually, the usual Jewish space laser nonsense was posted (this is not real), and then a newer one which is that the Obamas were responsible because they had produced the new Netflix disaster film “Leave The World Behind” (did you think you weren’t going to get a disaster movie reference this month?). Those are all bad/silly but, notably, these theories didn’t break into the mainstream in the way they did with East Palestine. They certainly have not approached anything close to the virality of the Kate Middleton rumors.
We’re still very close in time to the Bridge Collapse. I don’t want to get ahead of myself because what comes next is equally as complex but one thing that stands out is how quickly political leaders shut down these rumors. The mayor of Baltimore (while simultaneously battling racist attacks), the governor of Maryland, Buttigieg, and even Biden were immediately in front of the public. They went all in on managing the situation – especially Mayor Scott and Governor Moore -- and provided a narrative to the public about what had happened, why, and what they were going to do about it. They did not leave space for unanswered questions to form. Most importantly they led with empathy. (There was also excellent local reporting to back them up.)
Emergency management does not, on our own, have the resources to counter every mis- or disinformation campaign but I do think Baltimore shows us hope is not completely lost. There are still people who have enough presence and trust to lead and in emergency management, we need to be creating systems that support them for moments like this one.
MEME BREAK
I hold FEMA accountable in many ways. IYKYK.
Genocide & Famine in Gaza
As the genocide in Gaza continues unabated, I am reminded of the need for emergency management, as a profession and discipline, to be vocal defenders of human life. I think often of Ted Steinberg’s opinion that our efforts in this field are meant to “keep body bags from becoming a growth industry”. While current conditions obviously prevent an exact death toll the estimates easily exceed 30,000 – an unfathomable percentage of which are children.
Israel’s continued bombing and refusal to allow adequate aid organizations across the border has now pushed Gaza to the brink of famine. I want to highlight this powerful piece from The Guardian by Alex de Waal which specifically explains the current circumstance. He explains that “we are about to witness the most intense famine since the second world war”. Of the many hazard scales, I’ve always found the one for famine the most bleak. All stages are horrific and unnecessary. As is the case with humanitarian crises, this annihilation will only stop when Israel (and US support of) stops.
In Other News…
Mitigation
They spent $600K on a proposed climate change solution. Their failure is a warning via MSNBC
Preparedness
California’s home insurer of last resort sees enrollment surge, raising concerns over its finances via the Los Angeles Times
Insurance rates are soaring for US homeowners in climate danger zones via Wired
Response
Hottest city in US saw record 645 deaths related to high temperatures in 2023 via The Guardian
Recovery
Tank cars didn’t need to be blown open to release chemical after East Palestine derailment, NTSB says via CBS News
Many homes burned in the Texas wildfires weren’t insured, creating a steep path to recovery via Grist
The government set a fire in New Mexico. It burned 341,735 acres via Rolling Stone
The End Bits
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