March 2025: Disasterology

This newsletter is a compilation of recent disaster ~things~ that I think are cool, important, or otherwise of interest to people who are intrigued with disaster (broadly defined). There’s a little something for everyone!

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Welcome to The Disaster Group Chat,

I want to start by acknowledging the continued horror unfolding in Gaza. This news from yesterday will hit particularly close to home for readers of this newsletter. CNN reported they believe Israel murdered eight Palestine Red Crescent Society workers, a UN employee, and five civil defense staff. They crushed up and buried entire ambulances and civil defense vehicles in the mass grave. This looks to be another horrific attack, and war crime, on humanitarian aid workers.

The State of Emergency Management

As grueling as it is to recap the emergency management news each month, taking the time to account and reflect is one way to help stop our heads from spinning. Regardless of the uncertainty faced by emergency management, we cannot just sit around waiting for the other shoe to drop.

When we left off at the end of February, we were waiting for the Trump administration to finish nominating people to serve on the FEMA Review Council in anticipation of their first meeting in April. In the meantime, and barring an unexpected large disaster, I thought we would just need to juggle Musk’s ongoing turmoil. Jokes on us.

On March 10th, Fox News broke an exclusive that the President would be signing another FEMA-related executive order that night. Unfortunately, the article from Fox was largely incomprehensible. It really was not clear what exactly the executive order was about or its purpose.

And then we waited… For over a week, nothing was said publicly about the executive order. Finally, on March 19^th, it dropped. Unsurprisingly, it was more word salad and sub-text. The take-aways:

• The Trump administration is developing a new National Resilience Strategy. Of note, the Biden administration released its National Resilience Strategy in January.

• Requires a review of effectively all existing FEMA policy and some other federal emergency management-related policy especially related to infrastructure. (This was an early red flag to me for what came later this month because presumably this was something the FEMA Review Council was already tasked with doing.)

• The order mentioned switching from an all-hazards approach to a risk-informed approach. Some in our field, perhaps searching for a ray of hope, have interpreted this as a potentially new positive strategy for emergency management, and… it is not that! They do not understand what all-hazards means, and they are using this shift in terminology to justify eliminating climate-related efforts in emergency management.

Although this executive order was unexpected, it did reference the FEMA Review Council, so it seemed at this point that was still the path we would be going down (even if the Review Council is just performative). One headline even read “Trump backs away from his threat to eliminate FEMA” based on the signing of the EO.

But then… the Secretary of Homeland Security, Kristi Noem, decided to wake up on March 24^th and cause chaos by nonchalantly hitting us all with a “We’re going to eliminate FEMA”. [It’s just after minute 19 if you want to see the video.] No one had mentioned complete elimination since Trump seemingly floated the idea off the cuff in North Carolina in January, so it was an unexpected callback. (Also… who is “we”?!?!?!! *Stares in Congress*)

It is wildly irresponsible to discuss publicly and cavalierly eliminating FEMA. There is nothing casual about a remark like this – they are threatening the jobs – the livelihoods – of THOUSANDS of FEMA employees, federally funded positions at the state and local levels, and the people who work at companies with FEMA contracts. Even worse, they are threatening to take away what little safety net exists for Americans who experience a disaster. Worst of all, perhaps, they are saying the federal government will stop mitigation efforts to prevent the continued escalation of national risk. Noem is threatening our physical safety, our economic stability, and our national security.

The wave of fear and anger that washed throughout the emergency management community after this comment was chilling.

I have some assumptions about what happened behind the scenes after this comment, but the next public reporting came two days later, when we learned Noem met with Cameron Hamilton (acting FEMA administrator), Corey Lewandowski, and others. In that meeting, it was reported that they clarified they would not be eliminating FEMA in its entirety (remember that to do so legally would require an act of Congress), but there would be tremendous changes to the agency’s mission. In short, it looks like they intend to leave FEMA’s response function (the least of what the agency currently does) and eliminate most or all of its mitigation, preparedness, and recovery functions. This is largely in line with the recommendations for FEMA in Project 2025 and what they have started to do via Musk.

(Note: this administration’s use of terminology is not at all clear, so this is how I am understanding what is currently being reported. The public has yet to see anything from the administration in writing or hear from them directly on this issue so there is a bit of a game of telephone happening. I am extremely trusting of this particular reporting, specifically because it comes from Tom Frank, who without question, has the best sources in FEMA of any other reporter.)

Another outcome of this meeting was the idea that perhaps they will revoke the administration’s original executive order and do away with the FEMA Review Council. LOL. You will note there have been no other nominations for the Review Council since I last wrote about this in January’s newsletter. Yet, as this was being discussed, a request for public comment was posted on behalf of the Council.

It is worth noting that the questions being asked here are about survivor’s direct experience with FEMA. We know from research that this is a particularly difficult population to get clear information from because there is so much confusion over the recovery process (which is when individuals interact directly with FEMA). Survivors are regularly unclear about which programs and agencies they have received funding or support from (understandably because of how complicated these programs are and how poorly they are communicated). Asking about individual assistance is interesting here because it conflicts with Noem’s claims about ending FEMA’s involvement in recovery. Not to mention asking for public input for a Council that may no longer exist is a fabulous waste of time and resources. Inconsistency abounds.

You can read through the public comments here. I did not read them all but did go through and randomly select a bunch. They are among the most glowing recommendations of FEMA I have ever seen. So, there’s that.

Reporting from the Washington Post later added that the Trump administration intends to eliminate FEMA’s recovery mission specifically by October 1^st. It is unclear what exactly this means operationally. There would never be a good time to do this but at the literal peak of hurricane season is particularly stupid.

There is a point at which the distinction between completely and officially eliminating FEMA and gutting the agency to the point of being unable to function becomes meaningless. But it does seem we are back to where we started in that eliminating FEMA entirely is not likely to happen. To further support this idea, it was reported just a few days ago that Kidd and Guthrie are still the top two contenders for FEMA administrator.

I have many thoughts on this. So, so, so many thoughts. But as I have said in previous newsletters, I will wait until there is an actual nomination to write about it. What is interesting here is that the administration seems to be moving forward with a plan to nominate someone to lead the agency, which means that they must think there will be an agency to lead.

Am I grasping at straws over here? Maybe. Understand I have also fully mentally prepared myself for the possibility of getting a news alert that says the administration is eliminating FEMA at any moment. All options do still seem to be on the table.

While the executive branch worked on getting its story straight, Congress seemed to be operating in its own world. There has been disturbingly little pushback in Congress to any of this. Related to FEMA specifically, there were two congressional hearings this month. The first was held by the Emergency Management and Technology Subcommittee in the House on the Future of FEMA, and the second was the Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure looking at Reforming FEMA. I watched the first one but did not have it in me to watch the second. My main takeaway from the first was that no one brought up the idea that FEMA should be eliminated. Everyone stayed focused on the need to reform the agency. Now, clearly everyone has different ideas of what that reform should be, and some truly unhinged ideas were mentioned, but elimination itself was not part of the conversation. This aligns with reporting in which members of Congress across the political spectrum express their support for FEMA. The conversation at the hearing was largely centered around relatively small policy adjustments rather than any kind of major reforms.

Rep. Moskowitz also reintroduced his FEMA Independence bill.

I do not find it productive amid a crisis to say “I told you so,” but oh my god. NOW DOES EVERYONE SEE WHY FEMA BEING IN DHS IS A CATASTROPHICALLY BAD IDEA? Yikes.

I support the bill obviously, but it also feels a bit like patching a small hole on the side of a boat that has already sunk. It feels disconnected from our current reality in a way that it wasn’t in years past.

As such, I continue to believe that there is not a single member of Congress who fully grasps the threat to emergency management from this administration, is knowledgeable enough about emergency management policy to fight back and create an alternative proposal for reform, and has a working moral compass to guide that reform.

So anyway, while all of this is going on, we also have Elon Musk out here continuing his frenzied and lawless rampage through the federal government. Musk continued to instruct the firing of federal workers across agencies that do disaster-related work. Juliette Kayyem compiled a list of just some of the critically important jobs these workers do. There has been extensive reporting on the NOAA/NWS firings, including how this may affect overall weather forecasting, hurricane season, and tsunami warnings. Some people seem to have been re-hired, but there remains confusion about the future of staffing at these agencies. Musk’s firings also affected nuclear waste facilities, US dams, and the Forest Service. They even fired the staff at the Learning Resource Center at EMI. This all affects the work we do in emergency management by either increasing our risk of disaster or by making it more difficult to prepare, respond, and recover.

In addition to the firings, we also learned that more people are leaving FEMA. Anyone who feels like they need to leave FEMA because of the instability and hostility of this administration is a loss. However, there is a particular concern here about high-level officials leaving. The New York Times reported that at least 7 FCOs (federal coordinating officers) have left. Honestly, my jaw dropped. This is brain drain territory.

It is expected this will continue. Moving forward, when renewal contracts for FEMA workers come up, each person will need to be approved by DHS. This will affect up to 75% of FEMA’s workforce. The thinking here seems to be that this will be a mechanism of effectively firing the FEMA workforce.

FEMA funds have continued to be put on hold. On March 6^th, a federal court ordered the Trump administration to release the funding. They ignored it. In turn, 23 state attorneys general are continuing to fight back. This is having major consequences across the country. Here’s an example from Maine and one from Michigan to give you a sense. We did also start to see local emergency managers warning about the significant consequences if FEMA continues to not pay out funding, including in New York City, where 60% of emergency management jobs are at risk.

This is particularly harmful for communities amid recovery, like North Carolina. Since this administration is justifying their dismantling of FEMA based on what two dudes posted on Twitter during Helene (I’m barely exaggerating), it is worth seeing how the administration is helping the recovery move forward...

In short, the Helene recovery is going slowly (as recovery always does). But there have also been additional obstacles created by the Trump administration, like withholding funding. There have been other ideologically driven delays, such as HUD forcing Asheville to eliminate any mention of women or minorities in their recovery planning (despite us knowing these groups are disproportionately impacted in disasters and aid programs are often not designed to meet their needs). Here's another example, despite warnings that the areas affected by Helene would be particularly vulnerable to wildfires this year, Musk cut funding to the Forest Service, where employees were working in North Carolina on forest recovery. Now the fires have started.

Of course, many people and organizations are working to move the recovery forward, but there is nothing here to suggest that the Trump administration has changed a single thing to make it progress more effectively or efficiently, and certainly not equitably. On our very best day, a recovery like Helene’s would be unbelievably complex, and this is not our best day.

Communities are also continuing to deal with cuts to other federal agencies that run disaster programs. For example, the Department of Labor runs the National Dislocated Workers Grant, which was funding 130 Maui residents working on wildfire recovery efforts. They were shut down. Another program Elon took a chainsaw to was funding tree planting across the country. This was IRA funding, not FEMA, but is relevant to emergency management in a number of ways but particularly in helping to reduce heat and associated impacts. This has affected New Orleans, Nashville, Oregon, and Los Angeles among others.

Various federally funded trainings were canceled, paused, and/or moved only online this month. This includes incident management training for meteorologists, in-person National Fire Academy and EMI courses, and a women in wildland firefighting bootcamp. People within FEMA are warning that the agency is not doing everything it normally would be doing to prepare for hurricane season.

The actions of this administration this month should make it crystal clear to everyone that they have zero interest in investing in even the most basic disaster preparedness efforts. I mean, Musk even went after the USDA’s emergency seed bank. Nothing is safe.

A final issue that has contributed to this shitshow of a month is DHS using FEMA to enforce their tirade against undocumented (and documented, incidentally) migrants. I am, once again, pointing out that FEMA being within DHS is a direct conflict of interest.

Related to the withholding of funding, FEMA has been doing a review of 56 programs to establish if any funding is being used to benefit what they term “illegal aliens”. The appropriate term here is undocumented migrants – although, again, given the disappearing of people who are documented, it seems they are talking about a much broader group of people. Much of this funding is being used by nonprofits for things like providing temporary housing to disaster survivors. It seems the review has been completed, though there are not many details publicly available. The findings reported from FEMA suggest that the vast majority of programs are not going to support undocumented migrants, or even immigration related work more broadly.

Relatedly, the hysteria over the Shelter & Services program continued. FEMA went as far as requesting the specific names and addresses of individuals who were assisted by nonprofits to assess if any of them were immigrants. One of the letters sent suggested that the nonprofits – groups like the Salvation Army and other faith-based organizations may be in violation of human smuggling laws if they had housed migrants. Insane.

I want to be clear that the only reason FEMA is getting wrapped up in this is because of the extremely bad decision made years ago to put FEMA in charge of administering DHS grants. As I have explained, the Shelter & Services program does not belong to FEMA. This is not “FEMA money”. Another checkmark in the column for removing FEMA from DHS.

Also, and here’s a hot take, I actually think it is good for the federal government to help local governments and nonprofits house people regardless of their immigration status. In fact, we should spend more money on it.

DHS is absolutely trashing any trust that existed between FEMA and migrant communities. There will be consequences for this in future disasters — not that this administration cares. I would once again remind everyone that emergency management is a humanitarian mission, not a law enforcement mission. I do not remotely care what someone’s immigration status is, if they are in the middle of a disaster and need shelter, food, water, and medical care, they should get it. Full stop.

We have not heard much from state agencies/ directors, which would be helpful right now. If I get one more message from a local EM saying their state won’t tell them anything! (I think it’s that they don’t know.) There is universal agreement that states are not remotely prepared to handle disasters on their own.

NEMA did meet this month in Washington and together with IAEM and Big City Emergency Managers put out a statement that FEMA needs to be reformed, not abolished — bold, guys! Of more interest than that statement is the LinkedIn post from IAEM President Carrie Speranza, which instructed state and local emergency managers to start mobilizing for a “world without FEMA” with a worst-case scenario of April 15^th. More coverage of this here.

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MEME Break

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Myanmar & USAID

I know there is a lot going on in FEMA world, but I want to take a moment to discuss USAID and the horrific earthquake centered in Myanmar. USAID, which is (was?) the agency responsible for coordinating U.S. international emergency management efforts, was among the first agencies to be absolutely decimated by Musk and Trump. They have effectively gutted US involvement in the international humanitarian aid sector because of how funding to NGOs, etc. worked.

I have been watching what has happened to USAID quite closely in part because I think it can tell us a lot about what may be done to FEMA. On the day of the earthquake, we learned that USAID will be reduced from 10,000 people to 15. Yes, you read that correctly – 15 legally required positions. So, when you hear people say that the Trump administration can’t eliminate FEMA without Congress, I want you to think of USAID to understand the significance of this threat.

When the earthquake struck social media was filled with former USAID and humanitarian workers explaining that normally they would be mobilizing to go help. Instead, the resources of the federal government were just sitting there. When confronted with questions of how the US could just sit by as so many people needed lifesaving help, Trump claimed that “we’re going to be helping”.

But, here’s the thing: let’s assume that he did genuinely want to help and instructed his administration to do so. The type of response an earthquake of this size requires in a politically complicated country is deeply complex. It just isn’t possible to launch the kind of response the US would normally launch in this type of catastrophe without having existing systems in place ready to go. We are talking about getting USAR teams to the other side of the world in a matter of hours.

I just – God, these people have no fucking clue how emergency management works.

Reporting 72 hours post-earthquake from the Washington Post confirmed that the mechanisms for the US to be able to respond in a timely way had been degraded to the point that they were not operational. Other countries – led by China – are responding.

I fear that we will have a repeat of this in a future major disaster in the US. Where our agencies, staff, budgets, and resources have been so degraded that launching a timely response with federal resources will be impossible.

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The Resistance (???)

Let’s highlight the people who are trying to keep moving us forward to creating a more effective, efficient, and equitable approach to emergency management.

• Call me biased, but shout out to Maine for working on bipartisan emergency management legislation. I do not personally think state resilience offices have proven to be an effective model, but I appreciate the attempt to expand the state’s role in disasters.

• A number of efforts have been underway to protect disaster data. The Guardian has replicated FEMA’s Future Risk Index, which was taken down recently due to its inclusion of climate-related data.

• One thing I know for sure is that disaster volunteerism is going to need to come back in a big way – like 1918 Red Cross volunteer numbers big way. Here’s a recent story about the Community Brigade in the LA fires.

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  The End Bits

It’d be cool if you forwarded this newsletter to your friends, post it on social media, or undertake any other form of newsletter sharing you deem appropriate. I’ve heard some of you print out the memes to hang in your emergency management offices! Incredible.

In case you signed up for this newsletter without knowing who I am (a bold choice!) you can listen to this interview with me on Ologies. If you really want to dive in you can read my book Disasterology: Dispatches From The Frontlines of The Climate Crisis to catch up (here’s a USA Today review). You can order it here and get it as an audiobook here.

Other places to find me: Blog. BlueSky. Instagram. TikTok.

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